Does the US have the capacity to fight two major wars with China and Russia at the same time?Expert: Can’t win
On January 24, local time, the former acting director of the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Graham said that Putin would consider China as a factor in ordering an attack on Ukraine.By implication, the US believes that if Russia attacks Ukraine, it is highly likely that the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army will also carry out combat missions against Taiwan.Graham therefore asked the United States and its Allies to be prepared for a simultaneous “emergency” on the east and west fronts.So does the US have the capacity to fight two major wars with China and Russia at the same time?This point the Experts and scholars in the United States have given the answer, that is not to win!In a recent online seminar titled “Meeting the China Challenge” held by the Us think tank Enterprise Institute, a number of hawkish US officials admitted that the US cannot achieve a two-front war mission with its current resources and capabilities.Among them, James Colby, who served as deputy assistant Defense Secretary under President Trump, said that the situation in Ukraine shows that the global balance of power has changed, and that it is wrong to think that the United States can deal with Both Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time, and that the United States cannot fight two wars at the same time.As a matter of fact, the United States is unable to cope with simultaneous emergencies on both fronts, which is not only reflected in the changes of ITS strength and status, but also the increasingly fragile alliance is the fundamental reason for the United States’ inability to cope with the so-called “two-front war”.The United States has long responded to potential adversaries that might emerge by relying on large alliances.Such as the establishment of NATO to deal with Russia, in the Asia-Pacific region to attract India, Australia, Japan and southeast Asian countries, in a vain attempt to establish a “small NATO” against China.The problem starts with NATO.Croatia will withdraw its last soldier from NATO if tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, Croatian President Milanovic told reporters at an event here On January 25.In addition, Milanovic made the point: This conflict is not about Russia or Ukraine, we are facing a serious crisis, behind which is a shift in U.S. domestic policy.If French President Emmanuel Macron’s “brain death of NATO” remarks only increased the rift in NATO, Then Croatian President Milanovic’s remarks directly opened a big hole in the ALLIANCE’s defense system.The question, then, is who should fire the first shots if a conflict does break out in Ukraine.Ukraine is not a NATO country, giving members ample reason to avoid getting involved in the dispute.If the United States insists on NATO’s involvement in Ukraine, the alliance risks disintegration before the conflict.After all, Croatia’s president has set an example. More countries are tacit, and NATO’s rapid-reaction force, with troops drawn from each country, is ill-equipped to withstand Russian military action.If the United States wants to take on Russia alone, it has very limited options for dealing with Ukraine unless it has the courage to start a world war.In fact, the United States faces a similar situation in the Asia-Pacific region.First, if the US wants to “defend” Taiwan, how should the US military act?If they use bases in Japan or South Korea, those bases could be hit directly.It is the only way to prevent the MILITARY base from being hit by PLA missiles.Second, the US faces an even more awkward situation in the asia-pacific region: it has a woefully inadequate number of Allies, at least in NATO, which has 30 members, though many are just scratching the surface.The only us ally in the region that can help is Japan, and there are only five countries in the quadrilateral security dialogue, including India and Australia, plus South Korea.In recent years, the United States has been trying to make a breakthrough in Southeast Asia, trying to attract more so-called “like-minded” Allies to establish the Asia-Pacific version of the “small NATO”, but it has not succeeded.At the same time, the US forces also face the PLA’s powerful area denial force, which can also be blocked out of the country by dense and powerful firepower.If a real conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US military may not even be able to enter the waters of the Taiwan Strait, let alone “defend” them.Speaking at a webinar called “Meeting the China Challenge,” Mei Huilin, a non-resident senior fellow and expert on China’s military, candidly acknowledged that the United States can no longer deter Both Russia and China.”The United States wants to fight a war here and a war there,” she said. “It wants to show resolve and credibility, but it doesn’t have the resources.”She also noted that the United States has wasted too much money in recent years on military interventions around the world, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.And the overseas military bases that make up America’s global presence are big money eaters, consuming hundreds of billions of dollars a year.On another key question, whether the PEOPLE’s Liberation Army (PLA) will be deterred from military action, American scholars are also pessimistic.This is mainly because the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly made clear its red line on Taiwan, and reunification between the two sides will not be disturbed by external factors, even by the US military.Thus, the so-called ability to hold two large-scale wars simultaneously with China and Russia is itself a false proposition.The United States has neither the ability nor the right to dictate the internal affairs of other countries.If the US really insists on making a fuss over the situation across the Taiwan Strait, it should be prepared to suffer a loss of head and blood.It is alarming that us experts and scholars openly raise such a topic, not only to point out the weakness of the US, but also to give up the intention of containing China and Russia on the Ukraine issue and the Taiwan issue respectively.If the US fails to intervene in Ukraine, its role as western leader will suffer a serious blow and Russia’s strategic living space will be greatly enhanced.The same is true of the Taiwan issue. If the United States fails to intervene in the Situation across the Taiwan Strait, its international standing will be greatly weakened.It is foreseeable that the United States will not stop its provocations on the Ukraine and Taiwan issues, but will probably fight back crazily in the future.On January 25, local time, the US House of Representatives introduced a bill named “America Competes Act of 2022”, which aims to increase “competition” with China and win.Among them are the so-called “areas of competition” such as human rights, Taiwan and trade.It is clear that we should be fully prepared for the U.S. ‘s crazy counterattack.