Retail think tank: February investment logic and strategy in-depth analysis
Retail think tank: February investment logic and strategy in-depth analysis of A share market, since January, the north capital although affected by the external environment fluctuates greatly, but the cumulative view is still mainly to buy.For the upcoming post-holiday market opportunities, the probability of most indexes rising in February is more than 60% historically, and the probability of most industries rising is more than 70%. The “spring agitation” market appears almost every year, which is no less than a Spring Festival red envelope for investors.Spring agitation is worth looking forward to Statistics of spring agitation in the past 10 years.In terms of the timing of the Spring Festival, there were only two simultaneous declines in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CHINext index before the festival, one in 2016 and one in 2018.Before the Spring Festival in 2016, due to the influence of circuit breakers, the market had an obvious callback. After the Spring Festival, the market naturally entered the stage of rebound, with both large and small indexes rebounding.Another time in 2018, before the Spring Festival, there were small adjustments in both indexes, and after the Spring Festival, gem showed a relatively large rise, becoming one of the few opportunities to make money at the index level in the bear market environment in 2018.In a few cases, the simultaneous pullback in both large and small indexes set the stage for the post-Lunar New Year market rally.It is expected that in 2022, the “steady growth” policy will take full effect and become one of the core themes in the capital market.In recent years, the “steady growth” policy has been more of a hedge against the economic downturn, but it is hard to get the economy back up.However, for the capital market, the main line of “steady growth” is still very worthy of attention.Fixed asset investment growth up range, “steady growth” related sectors outstanding performance.In the five upswings in fixed-asset investment growth since 2010, the sectors that performed best overall included banking, real estate, building materials, home appliances, construction and other sectors that typically benefited from the “steady growth” policy.And in every upward range, there are “steady growth” related industries in the forefront of performance.Under the “broad credit” cycle, the consumption and infrastructure sectors are expected to obtain excess returns. For the latter, we need to pay attention to the grasp of the pace. Currently, we are in the stage of policy expectations after the current round of “broad credit”, and if the callback can still be arranged.According to the above logic, starting from the fundamentals and technical aspects, select 6 stocks for your reference:Yunnan Energy Investment 0020531) is a subsidiary of the green electricity industry, with a number of wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage projects. Recently, the company has invested more than 7 billion yuan in new wind power projects. The company is backed by state-owned capital.2) The construction under construction of the company is nearly half of the fixed assets, more than 2 billion, and the production capacity is greatly expanded. The current total market value is over 7 billion, and the future imagination is huge.3) From the technical point of view, from the technical point of view, after the stock price fell sharply, at the bottom of the wide shock, but with the volume can be amplified, gradually out of the rising trend of shock, the upper track is also a number of tentative breakthrough, once the late capital fund-raising is completed, may usher in the main market!2. Shaanxi Construction engineering 6002481) The company’s main business and business model has been transformed from petrochemical engineering contracting to a regional leading construction enterprise with complete construction qualifications. As an old construction engineering enterprise, Shaanxi Construction Engineering’s qualifications and brand advantages have gradually emerged, effectively enhancing the company’s market competitiveness.2) The company has contracted the first phase of Xi ‘an Metro Line 10, the business district in front of Airport New City STATION T5, Xi ‘an International Football Center, Xi ‘an International Convention and Exhibition Center and other major projects;At the same time, the company actively implemented the spirit of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government central Enterprises Into Shaanxi Conference, took the initiative to negotiate and exchange with a number of central enterprises and enterprises in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and signed strategic cooperation agreements with Sinochem, China Petroleum Engineering Corporation and other enterprises, laying a foundation for more large projects in the future.3) From the technical point of view, the K line has 5 days, 10 days, 20 days, 30 days, half a year line as a support, from the trend, the formation of an obvious rising channel, volume two days in a row, and KDJ just gold fork, medium – and short-term upward trend is strong!3. Juneyao Airlines 6038851) Domestic aviation demand recovery, domestic airline ASK rebound.In 2021, the company’s ASK (available seat kilometers) increased by 15.3% compared with the same period in 2020, and decreased by 12.0% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, domestic passenger demand recovered well. In 2021, the ASK of domestic routes increased by 19.7% compared with the same period in 2020, and increased by 5.5% compared with the same period in 2019.Demand and supply for overseas aviation remain low.2) Overall passenger turnover picked up year on year, and revenue rose year on year in the first three quarters of 21.Domestic aviation demand will recover in 2021. Shanghai and other places where the company’s main base is located are less affected by the domestic epidemic, while Nanjing and other places where the company’s main base is located are more affected by the domestic epidemic. Overall, passenger turnover of the company in 2021 will increase by 16.0% year on year.Among them, passenger turnover of domestic routes, international routes and regional routes changed by +19.3%, -68.1% and +81.1% year-on-year respectively.3) from the technical point of view, from the brin rail, in the short term in the upper rail and the middle rail shock upward trend, up volume, down shrinkage shows the main gradually suck the trend of funding, north recent continuous net inflow of funds!4. Dongfang Electric 3002171) Driven by national policies and market, orders for photovoltaic manufacturing equipment have increased rapidly.The national double carbon policy supports the rapid development of photovoltaic industry. The polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace and cold hydrogenated electric heater produced by the company are important equipment for the production of polycrystalline silicon. In November 2021, the company signed an order of 125 million yuan for reduction furnace and spare parts with Zhejiang Tejun.We believe that the investment in photovoltaic manufacturing equipment will still be at the peak of investment in 2022, and the company’s orders are expected to continue to increase.2) Leading manufacturer of electric heater, accelerate the expansion of new energy vehicle parts related business.As the leading manufacturer of domestic household PTC electric heater, the company actively enters the new energy vehicle PTC electric heater track. At present, the company has received intention orders in 22 years, which have exceeded the original planning capacity of 250,000 sets. In 22 years, it is expected that 1 million sets of water heating and 750,000 sets of wind heating new energy vehicle PTC electric heater production line will be completed and put into production.Capacity release may provide more room for the company’s PTC business growth.3) From the technical point of view, the K line has a half annual average line, above the 30 daily average repression, the early W bottom formed by the low, combined with the recent trading volume in a very low position, the empty side basically has no chips, KDJ just gold fork, there is a short-term rebound trend!5, Hausen 6885291) fuel oil vehicle power system automation equipment leader, new energy vehicle business rapid development.The company has been deeply engaged in the field of traditional fuel automobile powertrain for many years, and is in the leading position of engine and gearbox automatic assembly line business in China.Our customers include Beijing Benz, BMW Brilliance, FAW & AMP;Saic-volkswagen, SAIC-GM, Great Wall, Tesla, ZF, Weichai and other first-line vehicle and parts enterprises.2) The company is one of the few companies that can provide flat-wire motor assembly lines in China. In 2021, orders will increase rapidly, and performance is expected to achieve high growth in the next three years.According to the company’s announcement, among the orders with a project value of more than 5 million yuan, the company’s orders in the first three quarters totaled about 2.5 billion yuan, among which the orders in the field of new energy were about 1.03 billion yuan.In the first three quarters, the company signed new orders of about 860 million yuan, including new energy orders of about 400 million yuan.3) from the technical point of view, the average shows a central trend, the form belongs to qieform, K line in the short term in the qieform concussion, long-term looking for breakthrough direction, MACD red column began to increase, KDJ began to gold fork, short-term upward trend is strong!6, Ningbo Jingda 6030881) company is the domestic metal forming machine tool subdivision leader, actively layout new energy equipment business.The company’s main products are stamping equipment, widely used in air conditioning, motor and automotive industries.The company’s products include heat exchanger equipment, precision press and microchannel equipment, accounting for about 5:3:2 in revenue.2) Driven by new energy equipment, the performance of the company’s precision press has grown rapidly.Precision presses will be the main driving force for the company’s growth in the coming years.With the explosion of new energy vehicles, the company’s precision press equipment for new energy battery structural parts and motor iron core is in hot demand, and orders surge.3) From the technical point of view, THE K line is supported by the half-year line, MACD is in the obvious long-term bottom passivation, showing that the empty side has no power, KDJ has just gold fork, with a short-term technical rebound trend!Special statement: the above is not securities professional views and ideas, does not constitute any investment advice, please carefully read, any reference to this article produced any form of investment, profits and losses, the author will not assume any joint liability!