Bubbomat is building a theme park with no IP and no story!

2022-05-29 0 By

With the cooling of the concept of blind box and the intensification of competition in the industry, Bubbomat (09992.HK) is now under great pressure.On December 11, 2020, The first share of “Tide Play” Paomat was successfully listed in Hong Kong at HK $38.5 per share and closed at HK $68.82 per share on the first day, with a total market value of over HK $100 billion.Then, in February 2021, its share price peaked at HK $107.6 per share, with a total market value approaching HK $150 billion.There are always downsides, but bubbomat’s downsides came fast and fast — just three months after going public, its shares have halved from their peak and have been in a long slump ever since.In early January, a number of media reported that The company had entered into a partnership with Beijing Chaoyang Park, which would grant The company access to the Park’s “Continental Charm” project and its surrounding streets and forests.That is to say, Popomart will build a theme park in Beijing, and its founder Wang Ning said in an early interview: “Popomart has a grand goal, is to become the most like Disney company in China in five years.”The creation of a theme park may be an important step for BubbleMart to become “China’s Disney”, but also a new breakthrough for bubbleMart, which is now stuck in a bottleneck.However, Red Star capital noticed that the capital markets did not seem to be paying, and on January 28 Popomat fell below its offer price to close at HK $37.70 a share.As of February 18, 2022, Bubbomat’s closing price was 40.45 Hong Kong dollars/share, with a total market value of 56.708 billion Hong Kong dollars, which has lost nearly 100 billion Hong Kong dollars from the peak.It sounds beautiful to build a theme park and a Chinese Disney, but in fact, Boomart’s Disney dream may be difficult to realize.In recent years, Bubble Mart has been weakening its blind box label.At the 2021 interim results conference, founder Wang Ning emphasized: “Before and after the ipo, we repeatedly explained to people that Boomermaite is not a blind box company, but an IP-based hipplay company.”Why bubble Mart is eager to draw the line at blind box companies?On the one hand, the essence of blind boxes is that consumers realize their sense of expectation and luck through psychological expectation before purchasing blind boxes and surprise after opening them.Psychologically speaking, what consumers buy is the uncertain stimulus of blind boxes.When the nature of blind boxes was “debunked”, the discussion about whether blind boxes are “INTELLIGENCE tax” continued, and Bubbomat was also Mired in negative public opinion and consumer doubts for a long time.On the other hand, merchants’ hunger marketing and the wild growth of blind box market have brought more and more consumer disputes, and the supervision of blind box is also constantly strengthened.But from the prospectus of Bubble Mart can be seen that the market will bubble Mart and blind box equated, it is not unreasonable.From 2017 to 2019 and in the first half of 2020, The company’s blind box product revenue was 91.4 million yuan and 359.6 million yuan, respectively, and 1.359.2 billion yuan and 689 million yuan, accounting for 57.8%, 69.9%, 80.7% and 84.2% of the company’s total revenue in the same period, according to the prospectus.Since then, perhaps in an effort to further weaken the blind box label, Froomat has stopped reporting blind box earnings separately in its financial statements starting in 2021.But recently, Bubblemart and blind boxes have been in the spotlight again.Earlier this year, Bubbomat launched a 99 yuan Dimoo blind box meal with KFC.There are 7 types of blind boxes, 6 regular ones and 1 hidden one.According to media reports, 106 packages were purchased at a one-time cost of 10,494 yuan to collect the blind boxes.There are also consumers who buy “surrogate food” services, hiring people to buy and eat set meals on behalf of children to get blind boxes.On January 12, “Chinese Consumers’ Association named KFC bubble Mart” on the hot search.China Consumers’ Association pointed out that KFC’s sale of instant food products with limited blind boxes is a “hunger marketing” means to stimulate consumption, leading to consumers in order to obtain limited blind boxes and overpurchase resulting in unnecessary food waste.Then, on January 14, the Shanghai Municipal Market Regulation Bureau issued the “Shanghai Blind Box Business Compliance Guidelines”, giving 20 compliance suggestions and drawing a red line on blind box sales.The nature of Bubble Mart as a “blind box company” may not change at all, but now the supervision is strengthened again, for Bubble Mart, to “transform” to improve the revenue structure, change the image in the hearts of the public consumers, is facing no small challenge.So, is building a theme park a good choice for Bubblemart?Theme park is a project with heavy assets and long return cycle, which also tests the operation ability of enterprises.To tell the story of Disney in China, The first step is to cross a high threshold of capital.Take Disney as an example. According to public data, Shanghai Disneyland covers an area of 0.91 square kilometers with a total investment of 34 billion yuan.Moreover, Hong Kong Disneyland, which opened in 2005 with a relatively small total area and an initial investment of $2.8 billion, posted its first profit in 2012 after seven years of losses.According to public information, Beijing Universal Studios covers a total area of about 4 square kilometers, with a total investment of more than 50 billion US dollars.According to the forecast of CITIC Construction Investment, Beijing Universal Studio will attract about 6 million to 7 million person-times a year, and the number of tourists will be about 15 million to 20 million person-times a year after it is mature. Calculated based on the unit price of 1,500 yuan, the annual turnover will be about 25 billion to 30 billion yuan after it is mature.According to this calculation, Beijing Universal Studio’s return cycle also needs 4 years.Of course, Disney and Universal Studios are both halo parks, while many more parks in China are in long-term trouble.According to an Analysis report on The Development Pattern and Investment Strategy Planning of China’s Theme Park Industry released by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute in 2016, 70% of China’s theme parks are at a loss, 20% are flat, and only 10% are profitable, with about 150 billion yuan tied up in theme park investment.According to bubble, earnings, as of December 31, 2020, a bubble, cash and cash equivalents is 5.68 billion yuan, while the bubble matt’s “European style” the park covers an area of about 0.03 square kilometers, only but a bubble of matt in such aspects as IP build, offline stores still need to continue to input, to build a theme park into a system of funds are still relatively tight.In addition, in addition to the initial investment in the construction of the park, the park design, theme creativity, play mode and other throughout the hardware facilities and entertainment services of every link, are very testing the professional level of the enterprise.Never had this kind of experience for bubble Matte, the difficulties and challenges facing can be imagined.When Bubble Mart mentions Disney, most consumers will think of mickey, Donald Duck, Lion King and other classic IP, and the main reason for consumers to go to Disney theme parks is the emotional connection between the stories behind these IP and consumers.The core of Disney is to form a closed-loop ecological industrial chain of “content IP+ channel + derivatives” starting from IP, creating a unique revenue model.Further up the chain are Disney’s content studios, which generate revenue from box office and subscription fees by producing animated and live-action films and distributing them in cinemas and on streaming platforms.The middle of the industrial chain is to create secondary value of IP by putting movie IP into entertainment assets, including movie DISCS, theme parks and resorts.The downstream of the industrial chain is IP derivative operation expansion, namely derivative development, so as to realize the long-term value of content IP.In fiscal 2021, Disney reported revenue of $67.418 billion, including $50.866 billion from Disney media and entertainment distribution and $16.552 billion from theme parks and resorts.As you can see, theme park and resort revenue is only a small part of the loop of Disney’s business model, and the driving force of this revenue is also based on quality content itself.Bubble Mart’s dilemma is that there is no IP, but no steps from the birth of content to commercialization.No story of IP, it is difficult to impress more consumers.Meanwhile, Bubbomat’s IP has a short life cycle and is now losing value.First, Molly’s fall from grace.Earnings show that Molly’s revenue in 2019 was 456 million yuan, accounting for 27.1% of the total revenue;In 2020, Molly’s revenue decreased to 357 million yuan, accounting for 14.2% of the total revenue.In the first half of 2021, its contribution to revenue dropped to 204 million yuan, accounting for 11.5 percent of the total revenue.Another once popular style PUCKY, fate is also surprisingly similar to Molly.And then the new IP Dimoo, the ability to attract money is also challenged.In the first half of 2021, Dimoo brought in 205 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 11.6 percent of total revenue, compared with 14.4 percent in the same period in 2020, according to the earnings report.It can be seen that the influence of bubble Mart’s core IP is constantly cooling in the hearts of consumers.The life cycle of IP without a story is difficult to last for a long time. The IP of Bubble Mart can not retain the hearts of popular fans, and it will be more difficult to be recognized by the majority of consumers.Disney China, sounds really beautiful, but in fact, The business path and profit model of Bubble Mart and Disney are completely different.Even if It wants to build a theme park, it is difficult for enterprises to tear off the blind box label, short life cycle of core IP, large investment and slow output of the park, and other problems make this choice of Bubbles Mart questioned.Disney China may have been doomed from the start.