“Baijiu” su liquor fundamentals
Jiangsu is the leading province of liquor production and marketing in China, and its strong consumption ability drives the brand upgrading of Jiangsu liquor enterprises.From the perspective of historical liquor production and sales, Jiangsu province has been among the top five major liquor provinces in China in the past ten years, and consumers prefer low-degree luzhou-flavor liquor, resulting in the “elegant and soft” style of Su liquor.In terms of market size, the total size of liquor market in Jiangsu province in 2019 is about 41 billion yuan, and the overall growth rate of liquor in Jiangsu province is about 8% in recent years, and the market size is expected to be about 52.5 billion yuan in 2022.In terms of consumption power, with the increase of population and stable economic growth in Jiangsu province in recent years, the compound growth rate of GDP in Jiangsu Province will reach 6% from 2017 to 2021, ranking first in China.In terms of per capita disposable income, in 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents in Jiangsu is 47,498 yuan, 35% higher than the national average of 35,128 yuan. Therefore, liquor consumption preference in Jiangsu is more high-end than that in other provinces, which is conducive to the promotion of consumption upgrading of brands in jiangsu.In terms of price bands, medium-high end liquor has become the main consumer price band in Jiangsu province. High-end liquor (over 600 yuan) accounts for 27%, sub-high-end liquor (300-600 yuan) accounts for 25%, middle-end liquor (100-300 yuan) accounts for 28%, and low-end liquor (less than 100 yuan) accounts for 20%.Among them, in the sub-high-end and mid-end price belt, the representative enterprises of Su Liquor yanghe and Jinshiyuan occupy the main market share, Yanghe accounts for about 35%-40% of the market share, jinshiyuan accounts for 10-20% of the market share, the two together account for more than 50% of the sub-high-end and high-end market, in a leading position.In terms of high-end products, yanghe and Jinshiyuan together account for less than 10% of the market, and the high-end market in the province is still led by Maotai, Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao.During the Spring Festival, Jiangsu was less affected by the epidemic, and the survey showed that the sales situation of Jiangsu liquor enterprises was more optimistic.For liquor enterprises, the Spring Festival is the most important festival, accounting for 40% of the annual revenue. However, since the end of last year, the novel Coronavirus has relapsed again. The market is worried that the liquor sales during the Spring Festival will be affected, thus affecting the liquor enterprises’ good start.However, the new round of epidemic on the eve of the Spring Festival mainly occurred in Shenzhen, Tianjin, Xi ‘an and other places, and currently the middle and high risk areas have been cleared, the market for liquor plate affected by the concern is gradually eased.Among them, There was almost no new confirmed cases in Jiangsu province in this round of epidemic, which was less negative. Meanwhile, recent surveys also show that Jiangsu liquor enterprises such as Yanghe and Jinshiyuan have made a good start, completing about 35-40% of the annual payment, and Yanghe is expected to complete more than 50% of the annual target in the first quarter.More optimistic sales situation also led the market to su wine enterprise confidence repair.1. Yanghe Co., LTD. : Product upgrading has been continuously promoted and marketing reform has achieved remarkable results.The company actively upgrades the original products, and now the new product dream 6+ has become the core driving force of the company’s performance.In order to solve the problem of high inventory of original products and realize the increase of product price, the company upgraded its original products.In 2019, the company to upgrade its dream 6 old product, advancing the new 6 + replace dream dreams, the dream 6 + screens with 600 yuan price, the price with competing goods is relatively small, dream 6 + has obvious competitive advantage, with force and product force, yanghe brand dream 6 + has usher in rapid development stage, the future is expected to be selling billions of scale as a big item.At the same time, while realizing the successful upgrade of Dream 6+, Yanghe Shares also actively promoted the upgrade of the original product Dream Blue M3, and launched the upgraded product Dream 3 crystal version.Compared with the original product, the price of dream 3 crystal version is raised by about 100 yuan, and the card position is 400 yuan. At present, the national transformation of Dream 3 crystal version is advancing steadily. It is expected to learn from the experience of Dream 6+ upgrade, and the dream 3 crystal version is expected to achieve a successful upgrade.At the same time, in the third quarter of this year, the company also upgraded the blue sky products, so as to further enhance the company’s product strength.In addition, the company actively build new relationship with manufacturers, promote marketing reform.In the early stage, the company strictly assessed the sales staff and the assessment cycle was short. The sales staff had to complete the assessment by pressing goods into the channel, which eventually led to the high inventory of the channel and the deterioration of the relationship between manufacturers.For this purpose, the company actively promote the reform of channels, to build the “vendor” integration of the new vendor relationship, and gradually optimized “a business is given priority to, many companies becoming to” dealer layout, at the same time, the appraisal of the sales staff is more flexible, to moderate the relationship between the distributors and manufacturers, distributors of confidence in the manufacturer also enhanced obviously.2. Present destiny: Set up a high-end alliance and strive to promote the national layout.The company set up V99 alliance body power V series products.At present, the company’s core products for the edge of the country series, 2020 is expected to account for about 75% of the edge of the Country, its Edge of China to open the positioning of 200-300 yuan price band, edge four open card sub-high-end, pricing in 400-500 yuan price band.In order to further improve the company’s product price belt, the company established the V99 alliance in December 2021, focusing on V series products.Generally speaking, V series products are priced higher, including V3 card 600-700 yuan price band, V6 card 1000 yuan price band, V9 card 2000 yuan price band.With the gradual expansion of V series products, it is expected to drive the company’s product structure to achieve a relatively large upgrade.At the same time, the company actively promote the national layout.At present, the company’s revenue is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu Province, which accounts for about 94% in 2020.With the gradual improvement of the company’s market share in the province, in order to further open up the growth space, the company actively promotes the market outside the province.On the one hand, the company focuses on the markets around Jiangsu province, such as Anhui, Zhejiang and Shanghai;On the other hand, baijiu consumption in large provinces such as Shandong and Henan.Recently, the company actively promotes investment promotion in the market outside the province, and it is expected that the company’s market development outside the province is expected to usher in an accelerated period.Note: no matter how good the logic, but also combined with the market trend to choose the timing of intervention and exit.The above content is static analysis based on industry and company fundamentals, not dynamic buy and sell guidance.There are risks in the stock market, the market needs to be cautious, please risk from the operation.